Synonyms: ‘by rule’ and ‘most probable’; ‘exception’ and ‘less probable’.
Cause: that which is completely responsible for the phenomenon.
Driver: that which is mostly responsible for the phenomenon.
Contributor: that which is not mostly responsible for the phenomenon.
By rule, with dichotomous problems, there is a more probable and a less probable answer. Exception: when the probabilities are roughly 50:50. By rule, in situations in which there are three or more possible answers, there is a most probable and a least probable. Exception: when the possibilities are nearly equal in probability.
Unerring path: By rule, pick the more probable answer. Exception: Abandon the more probable answer only if a model ends up contradicted by data. Final result: a model that accounts for all of the known data. If picking the less probable answer also ends in contradiction, rephrase the question.
Pick the less probable result and by rule, one ends up with a model that is flat-out contradicted by available data. Exception: lucky guess of the right answer as the less probable.
Deceived by a host of factors (including emotions, stupidity, arrogance, and ignorance), people often pick the less probable. Some people err almost without fail.
Examples are gross as earth.
The American Dental Association has a strong economic incentive to push its one-sided agenda. Bad oral health is good for business and bad advice on oral health is good for the business of dentistry. If Americans became as obsessed about eating right (and they did not stop experimenting with diets until their oral health became outstanding) as they are now obsessed with money, the American Dental Association might be rendered nearly powerless and penniless. Like most governmental bodies, they are foxes guarding the henhouse. With a beaming smile, the fox always reports that all chickens are safe and accounted for.
It is generally agreed that good oral health is measured by the relative absence of tooth decay and gum disease. I would add throat health, tongue health (the various types of glossitis are a veritable catalogue of B vitamin deficiencies) and cheek health.
The American Dental Association has identified good oral hygiene (use of fluoride toothpastes, regular flossing, and germ killing mouthwashes), avoidance of sweets, and regular dental checkups as the key contributors to good overall oral health; together this list constitutes the driver of good oral health.
Nature, as observed by Weston Price, in roughly two dozen indigenous peoples, who have no fluoride toothpaste, no floss, and with a few exceptions, no germ-killing mouthwashes, who eat sweets (nature’s sweets) liberally, and never have a professional dental checkup should have very bad oral health. Just the opposite is true: their oral health is always better than those who both adopt our Western ways and follow the advice of the American Dental Association.
More probable: Since healthy teeth and gums are vital to survival (consider scurvy as a key illustration of this fact), Nature has not left our oral health defenseless.
More probable: Oral health has a lower priority in short-term survival than that of key organs/systems.
Consequently, when there is a nutrient shortfall, the effects are likely to appear in oral health before major organ dysfunction. For example, both the thyroid and the salivary glands have a need for iodide. If iodide is adequate, both are well supplied. If iodide is somewhat deficient, oral health suffers more than thyroid health. When iodide is extremely deficient, both suffer. Monitoring thyroid function would not be a wise choice for detecting inchoate iodide deficiency.
Consequently, by rule, one can infer the quality of the diet better through oral health than general bodily health. Exception: when oral hygiene is exceptional.
More probable: find an optimal diet by measuring its effect on oral health, using ordinary oral hygiene, than by measuring its effect on blood sugar, blood pressure, and cholesterol.
Less probable: The American Dental Association has identified the key drivers of good oral health correctly.
More probable: Nature has it right.
More probable: Proper nutrition is the key driver of good oral health.
More probable: One has proper nutrition when one has good oral health, given ordinary oral hygiene.
More probable: If one has poor oral health, one has not had proper nutrition (this is the more probable explanation of why scientists sometimes find skeletons many thousand of years older than civilization that are riddled with cavities – it takes only a brief time with poor nutrition to get tooth decay. If the ADA were right, ALL prehistoric skeletons should be riddled with tooth decay. Manifestly untrue).
Knowing that man can err if he is missing a single fact, and that nature’s most serious errors result in death before reproductive age, has 4 billion years of selective pressure got it right or has modern medicine got it right?
More probable: Nature has it right.
Less probable: Man has it right.
For the last 50 years doctors have told us to limit fat and cholesterol in our diets. Yet given a gram of cholesterol in our diet and up to 500 grams of total fat in our daily diet, our bodies readily take them up.
Doctors tell us that we need no more than 100 mg of vitamin C a day, regardless of circumstances. Yet if we give our bodies grams of vitamin C, our bodies readily absorb it, and our bodies absorb more when we are ill. Why? Who is right?
More probable: Nature.
Less probable: doctors.
Since doctors are highly fallible, nature need only be slightly less than highly fallible to be right more often than doctors. A major difference between nature and doctors: Nature selectively prunes its mistakes, while doctors cultivate theirs. Their is a culture of mistakes.
Doctors believe LDL-cholesterol is “bad” cholesterol. Nature has selected LDL as the chief carrier of fat-soluble nutrients (a laundry list includes cholesterol, vitamin E, vitamin K, carotenes, CoQ10, and more) in the human body and as far as I know, throughout the animal kingdom.
More probable: Winners in the evolutionary struggle are not bad for health.
More probable: if LDL-cholesterol is involved in atherogenesis, it is an adulterated form of LDL that is more responsible.
More probable: LDL-cholesterol is also “good” cholesterol.
Less optimal target for fighting atherosclerosis: LDL-cholesterol.
More optimal target: the adulterants of LDL and/or cholesterol.