The importance of correlations is greatly exaggerated by the assumption of causation

What is the probability that a newly discovered correlation has uncovered the cause of the observed effect? Next to zero. If there are Y (Y>>1) non-causal associations between correlates, and one and only one THE CAUSE of the effect, then more precisely, the chances are at most 1/Y and precisely ZERO if there is no cause of the effect, and more generally the probability would always be zero if causation itself is never true and is in fact an emotionally inspired intellectual confusion of the first magnitude.

 

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